The biggest misconception in sports betting is that picking winners is the goal. It is not. The goal is finding markets where the price exceeds the true probability. A 60% chance priced at 50¢ on a prediction market is value. A 50% chance priced at 60¢ is not. You can lose more bets than you win and still be profitable if you consistently find value — and you can win more bets than you lose and still go broke if you consistently bet into negative expected value.
How to Calculate Expected Value
Expected value = (probability of winning × profit per unit) − (probability of losing × stake per unit). If you believe a team has a 60% chance of winning and the prediction market prices them at 55¢, your EV is: (0.60 × 0.45) − (0.40 × 0.55) = 0.27 − 0.22 = +0.05 per pound staked. That's a 5% edge. Across many bets, that edge compounds.
When the Market Is Wrong vs When You're Wrong
- →Markets are usually right — your default assumption should be that the market knows something you don't
- →Markets are wrong most often around breaking news that hasn't been fully priced in
- →Public sentiment creates systematic bias on popular teams, favourites, and star players
- →Illiquid markets (niche events) have wider errors — but also thinner liquidity to exploit them
The best use of Boromarket for value bettors: compare the implied probability on a market to your own assessment. If the gap is consistently 5%+ and you can justify why the market is wrong, you have a systematic edge. If the gap exists but you can't explain it, the market is probably right.