Rodri won the Ballon d'Or in 2024 — and then got injured. Manchester City's results without him illustrated something prediction markets already knew: he is the most irreplaceable player at the best club in England. His fitness market is, arguably, the most important prediction in English football.
The Rodri Effect on City Markets
Man City win percentage with Rodri is significantly higher than without him. When he was injured in the 2024-25 season, City's title odds shifted materially. Traders who had positions on City's season markets and also held Rodri injury markets had a natural hedge — and those who saw the injury coming found it enormously valuable.
Defensive midfielders are chronically undervalued in football prediction markets. Rodri's Ballon d'Or changed that narrative — but pricing still lags his actual impact.
Boromarket covers Man City, Premier League, and Spain international markets with Rodri fitness and performance markets available.