By early 2024, prediction markets had the Conservative Party losing the general election by historic margins. The polls were showing a large Labour lead. The markets were showing a catastrophic one. In July 2024, the markets were right.
The Sunak Markets That Told the Story
Three markets defined the Sunak era: the election result market (Labour majority — priced at 70%+ for most of the year), the seat count market (Tories below 200 — which proved accurate), and the leadership succession market (who replaces Sunak as Conservative leader).
The leadership succession market was fascinating: it opened within hours of the election result, with multiple candidates already trading above 10%. Prediction markets don't wait for the dust to settle.
The Sunak era prediction markets are a case study in how markets price political inevitability — slowly at first, then all at once.
Post-election, Conservative leadership markets remain among the most-watched in UK political forecasting. Who leads the Opposition matters enormously for 2029 election markets — and those markets are already trading.