Justin Trudeau's departure from the Liberal leadership in early 2025 followed a pattern prediction market veterans recognise: slow-building leadership challenge markets, increasingly unfavourable approval ratings, and the kind of internal discontent that shows up in trading volumes before it shows up in newspaper reports.
The Canadian Political Market Opportunity
Canada's political markets are thinly traded relative to the UK and US but offer genuine value for traders who follow Canadian affairs. The upcoming federal election, the Liberal succession race, and the Conservative Party's performance under its leader all generate tradeable events.
Thin political markets are both an opportunity and a risk. You can move prices with a moderate-sized trade — and so can someone else.
Post-Trudeau Canadian political markets are particularly interesting: a Liberal party in transition, a resurgent Conservative opposition, and an election that could reshape Canadian politics. All of it is live on Boromarket.