By early 2024, prediction markets on "Will Biden be the Democratic nominee?" were trading well below 80%. The mainstream political press was still treating it as certain. Over the next six months, the market price fell further — to 70%, then 60%, then after the debate in June 2024, to below 50%.
Biden announced his withdrawal in July 2024. The market had been telling you this was likely for six months. The news was still described as "shocking" by most media outlets.
What This Tells You About Political Markets
Prediction markets aggregate private information that people won't say publicly. Democratic donors, campaign staffers, Congressional members who had private concerns — all of them could express that concern by trading the market without going on record.
Markets collect whispers. By the time those whispers become headlines, the opportunity to profit from them has usually passed.
The Biden withdrawal markets are one of the cleanest examples of prediction market superiority over traditional media forecasting. Boromarket tracks similar dynamics in current political markets.