The Honest Answer to "How Do I Win?"
Most prediction market advice is generic: "do your research," "manage your bankroll," "stay calm." This is correct but useless. Here is the actual framework: prediction markets reward people who are better calibrated than the market on specific questions. The path to consistent profitability is not being broadly clever — it is being more accurate than the crowd on the questions you choose to trade.
The Framework That Actually Works
- →Specialise ruthlessly: choose two or three domains where you have genuine knowledge advantages. Trade only those.
- →Track your calibration: when you say something is 70% likely, does it happen 70% of the time? This is the single most important metric.
- →Use base rates before anything else: what's the historical base rate for this type of outcome? Adjust from there, not from narrative.
- →Entry price matters more than prediction accuracy: you can be right and lose money if you pay 75p for a bet that resolves at £1 on a 70% true probability.
- →Size by conviction, not by enthusiasm: your biggest positions should be your most calibrated calls, not your most exciting ones.
- →Review losses honestly: was the loss because you were wrong, or because you were right but poorly priced? These require different corrections.
"A 60% win rate at even money is a professional edge. Most people are trying to bat 80% and sizing up every bet equally. That's how you go broke."
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Boromarket tracks your historical resolution rate across categories. Use that data. Your self-reported confidence and your actual calibration are probably not the same number.