What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where users buy and sell shares in the outcomes of real-world events. A contract priced at 70¢ means the crowd thinks there's a 70% chance of that outcome happening. They're more accurate than polls and expert forecasts because participants have real money on the line.

How do prediction markets work?

In a prediction market, you buy YES or NO shares on an outcome. Each share pays $1 if correct, $0 if wrong. The market price at any moment represents the crowd's estimated probability. You profit by identifying events where the market price is wrong.

Boromarket is a mobile-first prediction markets app for iOS and Android. Users trade on real-world events across politics, crypto, sports, and entertainment. It features gamified prediction challenges, fast mobile UX, and a non-custodial wallet setup.

How is Boromarket different from sports betting apps?

Unlike sports betting apps where you bet against the house, prediction markets let the crowd set prices through trading. This makes them more accurate, transparent, and fair. You're competing against other traders — not an operator who profits when you lose.

What can I bet and predict on Boromarket?

Boromarket offers markets on politics (elections, policy decisions), crypto (Bitcoin and altcoin price movements), sports (game outcomes, season results), entertainment (award shows, cultural events), and more.

Is Boromarket a good Polymarket alternative?

Yes. Boromarket is a Polymarket alternative designed specifically for mobile users. Where Polymarket was built for desktop, Boromarket is built mobile-first with a fast, clean interface, gamified features, and iOS and Android apps.

How do I make money with prediction markets?

You make money in prediction markets by finding outcomes the crowd has mispriced. When a market prices something at 60% that you believe is 80% likely, buying YES shares has positive expected value. Consistent profits require genuine information edges, disciplined bet sizing, and tracking your results over time.

Can I play prediction market games on Boromarket?

Yes. Boromarket has built-in prediction games including Speed Predict (fast-paced real-time predictions) and Prediction Quiz (test your forecasting skills against real market data). These games make learning prediction markets fun and accessible.

Climate Tipping Point Prediction Markets: Trading the 1.5°C Threshold

Climate prediction markets occupy a unique position in the broader prediction market ecosystem: they cover the highest-stakes questions humanity currently faces, they have clear scientific benchmarks that create verifiable resolution criteria, and they attract participant bases ranging from climate scientists to policy advocates to pure financial traders — creating a diverse and well-calibrated crowd.

The 1.5°C Threshold: The Market That Defines the Decade

The Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target has become the central prediction market benchmark for climate science. 'Will global average surface temperature exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for a full calendar year by 2030?' is currently trading at approximately 72% YES — a price that is actually consistent with scientific consensus from the IPCC and major climate research institutions.

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Climate prediction markets are the most scientifically calibrated on any major platform. Unlike sports or politics, the participant base for climate markets includes a disproportionate number of climate scientists and informed science journalists who keep prices close to scientific consensus. Value opportunities emerge when political events temporarily distort the market.

Tipping Point Cascade Markets

→West Antarctic Ice Sheet enters irreversible collapse regime by 2030: ~15% YES
→Amazon rainforest dieback exceeds 25% of pre-industrial cover by 2030: ~12% YES
→Arctic summer ice-free conditions (below 1 million km²) by 2030: ~35% YES
→Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening beyond threshold: ~20% YES
→1.5°C exceeded for full calendar year before 2028: ~55% YES

Policy Response Markets

Climate prediction markets extend beyond scientific thresholds into policy response questions. 'G20 nations collectively achieve net zero electricity generation by 2035' is trading at approximately 18% YES — a sobering price that reflects the gap between political commitments and actual policy trajectories. These policy markets are where traders with political analysis skills find the most differentiated value.

"Climate prediction markets are the only place where the scientific community's probability estimates have direct monetary implications for everyone. They should be taken seriously."
— Climate scientist and prediction market participant