Boris Johnson's political career was a prediction market in itself. Will he win the Conservative leadership? (Yes.) Will he win a general election? (Yes, large majority.) Will he survive Partygate? (No — but the market priced his exit six weeks before the formal resignation.)
The Johnson Markets Worth Studying
The Partygate markets are the most instructive. When the first reports emerged in November 2021, Johnson's resignation market opened at around 15%. Over the following six months, it moved steadily upward as drip-drip revelations continued. By the time he resigned in July 2022, the market was at 90%+. The crowd knew months before Westminster acted.
Post-resignation, Johnson comeback markets have traded consistently. Will he return to frontline politics? Will he contest the Conservative leadership? These markets remain open and liquid — Johnson refuses to close the door on anything.
Boris Johnson markets are the gold standard case study in how prediction markets track political survival. The crowd was right at every major inflection point.
For traders interested in UK political history as a guide to current markets, Johnson's career is essential reading. Boromarket covers current UK political markets including any future Johnson developments.