Bet365 processes tens of billions of pounds in bets annually. Their technology is excellent, their in-play product is genuinely impressive, and their streaming service has made them almost a default sports broadcaster for people without Sky. None of this changes one mathematical reality: every market they offer is priced at between 105% and 120% of fair value. You are paying to play.
What the Overround Actually Costs You
A two-outcome market (win/lose) priced at 110% means the sum of implied probabilities is 110%, not 100%. That extra 10% is pure margin. On a football match priced at 4/6, 4/6 (draw) and 5/2, the overround is typically 112-115%. That means for every £100 you bet long-term, you receive £86-88 back. The house edge at roulette is 2.7%. Bet365's effective edge is 12-15%.
Prediction markets operate at effective overrounds of 100-103% — the spread between YES and NO. The difference between 103% and 115% might not sound enormous. Compounded over 500 bets a year, it is the difference between being profitable and losing your shirt.
Why Sharp Bettors Prefer Exchanges and Prediction Markets
- →Near-zero margin means smaller positive expected value bets are worth placing
- →Account restrictions don't exist on prediction markets — your edge is your edge
- →Prices reflect genuine probability, not a bookmaker's risk position
- →Global markets beyond sport create new edges unavailable at any bookmaker
Bet365 will always have its place for casual recreation. But if you are betting to make money, or at least to not lose it unnecessarily, the maths points firmly towards Boromarket and its category of product.